Trade Plan: Friday, August 11th, 2023

Insane sessions

Hi all! Back with another trade plan. Thursday was yet again a red day for me, but today’s a new day. Let’s get into the review of yesterday’s session and plan for today.

Timeframe Overview

Monthly OTF: up, ends: 4411

Weekly OTF: down, ends 4622

Daily OTF: balance, ends to the upside 4518, ends to the downside

Value Overview

Monthly value: above, VPOC 4604.25 (July) VPOC 4544.75 (August)

Weekly value: above, VPOC 4604.25

Wednesday’s value: above, VPOC 4487, TPOC 4488

Thursday Session Recap

Yet another extremely interesting session with plenty of opportunities. Let’s review what we had planned for Thursday:

…I will observe 4518. This is a level that buyers failed to acheive twice in yesterday’s session, and looking like we’ve rejected off it for a third time now in ON as I write this. To be bullish I need to see us clear this level. Below it I have to be bearish as sellers have defended all higher highs with gusto…

And this is exactly what happened Thursday! We cleared 4518 without a single look back, printed a higher high, then reversed and sold off the rest of the day. If only I could execute properly and follow some of the ideas from my trade plans…

Thursday was a monster outside day, with BOTH higher highs AND lower lows than what we’ve seen traded all this week, in a massive 71.25 point trading range. It was also highly emotional, with nearly 2 million contracts traded (top 3% of all sessions since 2022). But look how it respected and interacted with our levels, top ticking 4545, and nearly bottom ticking 4472, as well as a look above 4500 and fail:

Anyways, onto the session. ES opened for the cash session at 4509, within Wednesday’s trading range. A period was rediculous in strength, with nearly a 0.7% return in just the first half hour of trading. Up against our target of 4545, buyers struggled, and perhaps late longs (like me!) were trapped, leading to a liquidiation ultimately far below the open. Interesting to note was the responsive buying in J and K period around 4475. Was this simple a reflexive rally after a huge trend down day? Or could this finally be a major support that was found, stopping bears in their tracks? Regardless, it’s an important level to watch going forward.

(Also an interesting note here, the highest point of the day, 4544.75, was 0.79% above the open, while the lowest point from open was 4473.5, exactly -0.79% in the other direction. Kind of useless information, but a fun coincidence nonetheless.)

Market Structure

Thursday’s session left a sort of weird double distribution (capitalized ‘B’ profile), with bias (more volume) to the downside. The upper distribution is around 4515, and the lower distribution at 4487 (VPOC). There is a poor high from B period above 4541, and a poor low from I period below 4474. Technically the daily is in balance, as we’ve made a higher high, but also a lower low, so take that as you will.

Trade Plan

Going into Wednesday’s session, I will observe 4487. This is the VPOC from Thursday, and a good starting point after such a massive outside day. Above I would target the psychological 4500 level, then 4509, Thursday’s session halfback. Beyond that targets 4517, the VAH from Thursday. It would take strength, but then targets that all too familar 4528 level.

To the downside targets 4475, where responsive buying occured in J period as mentioned. Will this poor low hold? Below 4475 I don’t really see anything until 4450, and down at these levels there should be some huge support. However, notions of “huge support” have been proven continually wrong for days now.

Stay agile, respect risk, use stops.

Key Levels

Pivot: 4487

Bull Levels: 4500, 4509, 4517, 4528

Bear Levels: 4475, 4450

Notes: PPI at 08:30

Trade Review

-$84. Was up at beginning of day, gave it back, then fought for green, then gave it back again (however, max green of day was only about $11, so my broker profited far more than I did today). No one reads this shit anyway so it doesn’t really matter.

Cheers and as always, good luck out there!

-Chris

A reminder that I am still ultimately a beginner to intraday trading and trading futures. This is not an alert service and none of this is financial advice.

Originally published at https://amtjoy.substack.com.