Trade Plan: Thursday, August 9th, 2023
Bears in control
Hi all! Back with another trade plan. Wednesday was unfortunately a red day for me, disappointing after sizing up — I got locked out of my account due to a daily max loss that I set which protects me from doing anything stupid, but this prevented me from catching longs later on in the session. Let’s get into the review of yesterday’s session and plan for today.
Timeframe Overview
Monthly OTF: up, ends: 4411
Weekly OTF: down, ends 4622
Daily OTF: down, ends 4518
Value Overview
Monthly value: above, VPOC 4604.25 (July) VPOC 4544.75 (August)
Weekly value: above, VPOC 4604.25
Wednesday’s value: above, VPOC 4514, TPOC 4540.00
Wednesday Session Recap
Yet another extremely interesting session with plenty of opportunities. Let’s review what we had planned for Wednesday:
I still want to see confidence and building above this level [4528] to be convinced that buyers / bulls are back in control. Also note I am revising my 4480 level to 4487, as there was some interesting price action and order flow at those levels Tuesday, and is actually the VPOC of Tuesday’s session. All other levels remain the same.
ES opened for the cash session at 4519.75, just below the session high from Tuesday. Like Tuesday, buyers were weak at the open, and the opening range was downward. B period was within A period, suggesting in fact that this would be a balance day. The first half of C period was extremely slow, with price action being quite choppy. However, a clean break of the IB low during C period then triggered a heavy selloff of more than 20 points. I need to be more aware of these patterns intraday, and not be so busy with trying to catch reversals. Had I simply gone with the market’s path of least resistance in the morning, shorts would have payed handsomely.
As the selloff occured, we tried to take longs at both our 4500 and 4487 levels as price action and deltas did respond to the upside, but I think from now on, to time these “reversals” I need to look at multiple (larger) timeframes, especially with an elevated VIX when more momentum and strong followthrough is often possible. It wasn’t until G period that OTFing down stopped, and after that we cleaned up the poor structure created in C and D periods, even clearing the IB low in J period. In K period it looked like buyers would reclaim the opening print, and maybe even a NHOD, but ES tagged our 4518 level to the tick, and another emotional selloff began until the close, as is commonly the case on these types of days when acceptance within the IB cannot be maintained. ES closed for the cash session at 4486.25.
Market Structure
Thursday’s session formed a triple distribution, with value areas at 4514 (VPOC), 4505, and 4488. There’s both a poor high from A period above 4518, and a poor low below 4480 from E period. There’s a bit of an LVN at 4496.
Trade Plan
Going into Wednesday’s session, I will observe 4518. This is a level that buyers failed to acheive twice in yesterday’s session, and looking like we’ve rejected off it for a third time now in ON as I write this. To be bullish I need to see us clear this level. Below it I have to be bearish as sellers have defended all higher highs with gusto. With no major change in areas of price (still ultimately chopping around within the 4480 to 4550 region), I will keep the rest of my levels the same as they seem to have responsive price action at. I revise 4487 slightly up to 4488, as that’s where more volume was traded on Wednesday.
Key Levels
Pivot: 4518
Bull Levels: 4528, 4545, 4561, 4570
Bear Levels: 4500, 4487, 4472
Notes: ⚠️ CPI and jobless prints today in premarket! ⚠️
I’m personally sizing down slightly after yesterday’s loss, I think I’m still finding the sizing that’s perfect for my larger account / my goals.
Trade Review
-$750. Max loss limit hit (again), even after being up $90 at the beginning of the session! I got overly stubborn on late longs today, and was way over trading:
I need to do two things going forward:
- Despite my levels being rather accurate (hit and reject 4545 to the tick), I need to stop creating stories thinking that all my up levels will be hit sequentially, and all my down levels sequentially. Markets rarely work like that. Instead, yesterday after the first stop hit, just take that as INFORMATION, watch, wait, and plan for the next trade, not trying to ‘reload’ on ‘dips’ that was actully ultimately a 70 point liquidiation.
- I need to watch what the market is doing. I’m doing exactly the opposite of what I should. I had an idea to go long earlier on period A’s insane strength, but I tend to just sit in disbeleif, and then FOMO in way too late. Its these FOMO moments I should be extremely careful, and actually monitoring price pause / exhaustions / reversal. I must think like the 1%, not the 99% (was definitely in the 99% yesterday)
I mean, my post here is even titled “Bears in control”, and I’m trying all day to long against resistance? It feels pretty dumb if you ask me.
Still, this is nothing I haven’t come back from before. All I can do is learn from today and do better tomorrow. I must.
Cheers and as always, good luck out there!
-Chris
A reminder that I am still ultimately a beginner to intraday trading and trading futures. This is not an alert service and none of this is financial advice.
Originally published at https://amtjoy.substack.com.
